In this video, I discuss how the high volume of mail-in ballots could cause huge volatility around the 2020 Election in the stock market. The VIX futures are already pricing in very high event risk.

Because Republicans tend to vote more in-person, while Democrats will tend to use mail-in ballots more during the pandemic, we could have a situation where Trump appears to be winning on election night, but then loses once all of the mail-in ballots are counted.

A more ominous scenario would involve large counting delays and lawsuits in key states over disputed races, both for President and Congress.

I analyze the 20th Amendment and the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 to think about scenarios where the U.S. does not have a president for days or weeks, or Nancy Pelosi, Mike Pompeo, or Steve Mnuchin become temporary acting president.

Either way, I believe that any dip in the stock market caused by these issues will be a great buying opportunity, since the Fed will keep printing.

2020 Presidential Election prediction market:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

VIX futures term structure:
http://vixcentral.com/

Bush v. Gore (2000):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore

20th Amendment:
https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/amendment/amendment-xx

Presidential Succession Act of 1947:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_line_of_succession#Act_of_1947

https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Presidential_Succession_Act_1947

President pro tem of the Senate:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_pro_tempore_of_the_United_States_Senate

Presidential line of succession:
https://www.cnn.com/2013/08/27/us/succession-presidential-and-vice-presidential-fast-facts/index.html

Not investment advice! Consult a financial adviser.

Matthew Kratter is the author of the Amazon best-seller “A Beginner’s Guide to the Stock Market”:

If you like my teaching style and would like to learn more about investing and trading stocks, options, and futures, be sure to check out my online courses here:
https://www.trader.university/join

Use this secret coupon code to get a discount: YT99

#Election2020
#StockMarketCrash
#Stocks2020

Disclaimer
Neither Trader University, nor any of its directors, officers, shareholders, personnel, representatives, agents, or independent contractors (collectively, the “Operator Parties”) are licensed financial advisers, registered investment advisers, or registered broker-dealers. None of the Operator Parties are providing investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, and nothing in this video or at www.Trader.University (henceforth, “the Site”) should be construed as such by you. This video and the Site should be used as educational tools only and are not replacements for professional investment advice. There is a high risk in trading.

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